In 2023, U.S. tourists spent a jaw-dropping USD 158.7 billion abroad, making the U.S. the second-largest source of international tourism spending, just behind China, according to Statista. This underscores the importance of understanding the factors driving U.S. travel behavior, as well as anticipating emerging travel trends. Recognizing these shifts allows destinations to fine-tune their marketing strategies, adjust infrastructure, and optimize resources to both capitalize on opportunities and mitigate potential challenges.
To shed light on these evolving trends, travel intelligence firm ForwardKeys has introduced a comprehensive 12-month forecast for 2025. Their forecast, part of the Destination Gateway package, leverages their own Total Air Market algorithm, now enhanced with data from low-cost carriers—information that was traditionally kept confidential by airlines. This new insight provides a month-by-month prediction of air travel demand, offering valuable visibility into future travel patterns.
When this tool is applied to assess U.S. outbound trips to Europe for summer 2025, several notable shifts in U.S. travel behavior begin to emerge. These changes could have significant implications for European destinations that rely on U.S. visitors to bolster their local economies.
No Change to the Top Destinations for U.S. Tourists
The top destinations for U.S. travelers to Europe show remarkable consistency. Early forecasts suggest that London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin will continue to dominate the charts for summer 2025. These cities have long been favored by American tourists, and there is little indication that this trend will change in the near future. Their enduring popularity is a testament to their cultural, historical, and tourist-friendly appeal.
City Breaks Are a Growing Travel Trend
One of the more exciting shifts in U.S. travel behavior is the rising popularity of city breaks. While the traditional favorites remain strong, Berlin and Porto are set to rise sharply in popularity, with projected growth rates of around 8% and 9%, respectively. These destinations are becoming increasingly attractive to U.S. travelers looking for a mix of culture, history, and modernity in an urban setting.
Additionally, Bilbao and Faro are expected to see significant growth in 2025, with Bilbao anticipated to climb 6 positions in the rankings and Faro potentially surging by 15 spots. The appeal of these cities lies in their unique offerings—Bilbao’s modern architecture and art scene, and Faro’s stunning coastline and historic charm.
The Decline in U.S. Travel to Former Favorites
While some destinations remain strong, others are experiencing a decline in U.S. travel. London, although still a major draw, has seen a modest 2% dip in visitors compared to the previous year. This slight decrease could be attributed to a range of factors, including increased competition from other European cities and shifting travel preferences among U.S. tourists.
Reykjavik, Iceland’s capital, is another destination that may see a significant fall in U.S. arrivals, with a projected 12% decrease. Despite the popularity of Icelandair’s stopover program, which has historically made Iceland a key transit hub for U.S. travelers, this decline suggests that Iceland’s allure might be waning as other destinations gain ground.
Nordic Nations Welcome More U.S. Tourists
In contrast, the Nordic countries are experiencing a notable rise in U.S. tourist interest. Helsinki, Finland’s capital, is expected to see a remarkable 16% increase in U.S. visitors in 2025. This growth is likely driven by a combination of factors, including increased direct flight capacity, as Finnish airlines have expanded routes and adjusted to bypass Russian airspace following the conflict in Ukraine.
Copenhagen, Denmark’s capital, is also forecast to see a modest 3% rise in U.S. tourist numbers. The city’s reputation for its high quality of life, design, and culture, combined with improved flight options, makes it an appealing destination for travelers seeking a mix of Scandinavian charm and urban sophistication.
The Role of Flight Accessibility
One key factor in these trends is flight accessibility. For example, the 59% increase in direct flights between the U.S. and Helsinki highlights the impact of long-haul flight options on travel decisions. The ability to fly directly to a destination can significantly influence a traveler’s choice, especially as airlines introduce more competitive routes to meet growing demand.
Conclusion
The 2025 U.S. to Europe travel forecast indicates a blend of stability and change. While the major cities like London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin are expected to remain at the top, new travel trends, such as the rise of city breaks and the increasing popularity of Nordic nations, are reshaping the European travel landscape. Destinations like Berlin, Porto, Bilbao, and Faro are poised to attract more U.S. tourists, while cities like Reykjavik may see a decline. Understanding these shifts will help European destinations adjust their strategies to cater to the evolving preferences of American travelers, ultimately ensuring a vibrant and successful tourism industry in 2025 and beyond.
